HOW TO STEAL AN ISLAND FROM RUSSIA

As global warming makes parts of the world uninhabitable, the sparsely populated islands of the Arctic will start to look awfully inviting to big chunks of humanity.  This game simulates an attempt by private equity investors to invade the Novaya Zemlya archipelago and sell off its real estate to climate-change refugees.  Your goal is to guide a fleet of transport vessels to the coast of Novaya Zemlya and set up habitats for settlers.  You also have a fleet of cable-layers waiting in a Norwegian fjord.  You can use them to connect these habitats to the European electricity grid via high-voltage undersea cables. Your goal is to connect as many hexes with habitats to the electric grid via undersea cables as you can. Of course, the Russians will try and stop you.  Your mercenaries have captured the Russian air base at Rogachevo and can use it to launch mine-laying UAVs.  These mines, or torpedoes that wait on the bottom of the ocean to ambush Russian ships and subs, are your only weapons.  You have no defenses against Russian air attacks, as air defense systems are expensive and no one will sell them to shady vulture investors.  The one thing you can do is build cheap wooden decoys to divert scarce Russian drones and cruise missiles from valuable targets.  Is this a far-fetched scenario? Yes!  Can investors acquire the ships, aircraft, weapons, and mercenaries needed to pull this off on the open market today? Yes! Good luck!

This game is essentially a simulation of an amphibious assault on a pair of uninhabited islands.  The platforms that navies use to conduct amphibious assaults have civilian analogs that investors can buy or lease today.  Semi-submersible heavy lift shifts are basically amphibious assault ships.  These heavy lift ships regularly move offshore oil rigs around the world.  In fact, these ships can often carry more cargo than the largest naval amphibious transport docks.  A few of these commercial vessels would be more than enough to transport a fleet of hovercraft, modular piers, barges, and landing craft.  Civilian equivalents of all of these landing vehicles are also available on the open market today.  Since the amphibious landings envisioned in this game will not be opposed, four 90,000-ton heavy lift ships similar to the BOKA Vanguard should be more than adequate to land the equipment and supplies needed to build several habitats. 

There are several civilian cable-laying ships capable of laying the kind of high-voltage direct current cables this game envisions.  Europe already has several high-voltage direct current (HVDC) undersea cables that stretch for hundreds of miles, so linking Novaya Zemlya to Norway is technologically feasible.  

Yes, these undersea cables are vulnerable to sabotage, and life in the Arctic is going to be impossible if the Russians cut these power cables.  This game imagines two ways to mitigate the risk of sabotage.  The first line of defense is the massive number of naval mines you will lay.  Deploying bottom mines along the route of the HVDC cable will deter Russian submarines from operating close to the ocean floor.  The second line of defense is redundancy: you have four cable layers laying four cables parallel to each other.  A Russian submarine would need to locate and cut all four cables to shut off power to your growing cities.  The hapless Russian sub sent to cut your power is probably going to trigger a mine before it finds all four cables.      

The UAVs in the game are just modified Cessna Caravan turboprops.  These rugged aircraft can operate from short dirt runways and can carry over 3,000 lbs of cargo.  With a few modifications, these widely available commercial aircraft could be modified to drop a mine.  A Cessna 208B recently completed an uncrewed flight.  

The mines are the hard part. You will need a mine that can target Russian submarines in waters as deep as 300 meters.  For this reason, the game envisions highly sophisticated mines like the US Mark 60 CAPTOR mine.  This mine contains a fire and forget homing torpedo that can sit on the bottom of the ocean for months.  Unlike everything else envisioned in this game, this kind of weapon is not for sale to civilians…but the companies that make these kinds of weapons are!  You are a private equity firm with billions of dollars, and you acquire mid-sized defense contractors all the time.  Alternatively, you could start a company in a friendly country to manufacture mines for export and license the ASW torpedo technology from a European or Asian defense contractor.  Since you are making life difficult for the Russians, the Western law enforcement agencies that monitor the international arms trade will not look too closely at your company.  A Canadian startup licensing South Korean lightweight ASW torpedo designs will do in a pinch.

The game does envision constant drone attacks from Russia, similar to the kinds of suicide drone attacks that we have seen in Ukraine.  Will anyone want to move to a cold island that is constantly under air attack?  In 20 years, the answer will likely be yes due to global warming.  The upper middle classes of Hot Zone countries will need a place to go, and they will bring their electrical engineering degrees with them.  Novaya Zemlya is about the same size as the Czech Republic, and over twice the size of the Netherlands. That is enough room to build a PHD-heavy multi-trillion-dollar economy.  Novaya Zemlya’s citizens will take it upon themselves to build an air defense network that can clear the skies of Russian aircraft and keep their children safe.   However, the best way to protect your investment from Russian attacks is to offer the Russians a share of the equity in your venture. Negotiating deals and aligning incentives is what private equity investors do.  If this works, you will own all of the real estate underneath the next South Korea. You can afford to offer some of the economics to the Russians.  With boots on the ground and electric heaters keeping people warm, you can negotiate with the Russians from a position of strength.  The Russians are pragmatic.  They need the immigrants Novaya Zemlya will attract to solve Russia’s demographic issues.  They will not nuke Canada 2.0 if they own 20% of Canada 2.0.

Would a Western private equity firm ever try something like this?  Almost certainly not!  Would an exiled Russian oligarch whose genuine concern for the future of Russia has made him powerful enemies in Moscow try this?  Possibly.  A remote Arctic island would be a great place to avoid Polonium in your tea.  The screenplay writes itself.  Thanks for playing!